政策演进中的农民工“退保”逆潮——基于新制度经济学的分析

"民工潮"现象是改革开放以来中国社会的独特景观。伴随着大量农民工涌入城市,为之建立相应养老保险制度的呼声日益高涨并引起了政策层面的持续关注。然而,在配套制度不断细化完善的同时,却出现与政策推进相悖的农民工"退保"逆潮,甚至出现参保率不及退保率的怪相。以新制度经济学的制度变迁理论和公共选择理论为切入点进行分析,发现制度缺失与利益博弈是农民工群体大规模退保的主要原因。结合现有实际,认为应从法制健全、政策统筹、宣传普及等多方着力,全面构筑农民工养老保障的"安全网"。     

终身寿险退保的利率敏感性分析——基于保单保障水平的测算

市场利率变化对于不分红终身寿险产品退保的影响很大,终身寿险保单不能够通过选择较长的缴费期来缓解市场利率变化引起的退保压力,调整预定利率能缓解退保压力;适当的分红政策能够大大缓解市场利率变化对分红型终身寿险退保的影响,但是经营效益差,分红水平低于市场预期的寿险公司产品可能会遭遇到更大的退保压力。     

ON SURRENDER AND DEFAULT RISKS

This paper examines certain types of saving institutions or insurance companies that are subject to surrender and default risks, in a stochastic interest rate context. In the setting under study, investors are endowed with an option to surrender. The goal of the paper is to study how this option impacts the default risk of the issuing company and the value of the contracts it issues. Surrender risk has been extensively studied in arbitrated markets, using trees or least‐squares Monte Carlo methods for valuations, although practitioners often rely on econometric methods. We deal with surrender risk in a third way, assuming policyholders have sets of information and preferences that differ from those of financial market agents, but without relying on econometric methods. In particular, policyholders are supposed to be only partially rational (at least in the financial sense). This is done by modeling surrender risk through a Cox process correlated to the assets and interest rate dynamics. The paper provides formulas for the dynamics of the assets of the issuing firm (these dynamics drive the default time of the company), and for the valuation of liabilities and equity. A numerical illustration is provided.     

论巨额财产来源不明罪的自首

自巨额财产来源不明罪设立以来,关于本罪是否具有自首一直存在争议,特别是随着本罪犯罪的不断增多,本罪的自首问题更是成为一个争论的热点。赞同肯定说观点,认为巨额财产来源不明罪的自首也表现为一般自首与特别自首两种形式,并且对行为人在纪检、监察机关调查期间＂主功交代犯罪事实的＂是否属于自首的问题谈了一些自己的看法。     

关于人民币汇率机制的存在问题及改革初探

人民币汇率问题成为中国经济问题的焦点之一。本文从人民币汇率机制的历史演变的基础上出发,指明了现行人民币汇率机制存在的一些特点,进而得出了现行人民币汇率机制存在问题――强制结汇售汇存在缺陷,人民币缺乏弹性,外汇市场不完善。最后本文在此基础上提出了一些改革人民币汇率机制的建议。     

基于期权定价理论的投资连结保险退保行为研究

投资连结型保险产品遇到的大规模退保风险,会严重影响寿险公司资金运用的稳定性和流动性。文章认为,购买投资连结型保险产品的投保人具有较高的投资收益敏感性,投资收益较低时,投保人会选择退保来规避损失。通过分析投资连结保险的运行机制和产品特点,文章从保单中嵌含的退保期权出发来定量研究投保人的退保行为,在胥会平和王玉梅(2002)模型的基础上建立了退保期权的理论模型,并且求出其相应的解析解。随后通过数值模拟,分析了在保单持有期间该退保期权的价值变化的各种特征。     

基于利益相关者理论的投保人与保险人的博弈分析

目前我国不少保险公司把企业的短期边际利润作为唯一经营目标,保险人与投保人的利益冲突问题不容忽视。由博弈结果分析可知,投保人作为保险企业的利益相关者,其利益的保护和保险企业的长期发展息息相关。如果投保人利益长期得不到有效的保障,投保人会选择退出保险市场,这将影响到保险业的市场占有率、信誉和形象等等,给保险业的长期健康发展带来威胁。     

基于D-D模型的退保风险传染效应研究

The prevention and control of financial risk has been placed at a more prominent position at present. Preventing the risk of cross infection and systemic risk is one of the most important tasks of the current insurance industry. The crisis signal of an insurance company may shake the confidence of consumers to a large extent, leading to a “flock effect” that causes the risk spillovers and make the insured surrender or no longer renew, which could eventually lead to systemic risk. In this paper, based on a micro perspective and D-D model, we take the insurance companies different levels of loss claims as a key variable to establish a closed insurance market model, to study the relationship between the surrender behavior and the risk contagion, and carries on the numerical simulation and the sensitivity analysis to the risk infectivity caused by the insured under different crises. The study found that there is a critical jump point when the insured faces a different degree of crisis in the insurance company, and the behavior of the insured has a certain degree of influence on the systemic risk transmission. The regulatory authorities and insurance companies need to pay attention to the contagion effects of systemic risk caused by expectations and behaviors of policyholders.     

Cash flows and policyholder behaviour in the semi-Markov life insurance setup

Within the setup of a semi-Markov process in a finite state space, we consider a life insurance contract. First, without the modelling of policyholder behaviour, we show how to calculate the expected cash flow associated with future payments, and to that end we present a version of Kolmogorov’s forward integro-differential equation. The semi-Markov model is then extended to include modelling of surrender and free policy behaviour, and the main result is a modification of Kolmogorov’s forward integro-differential equation, such that the cash flow can be calculated without significantly more complexity than the cash flow without policyholder modelling. The result is also demonstrated for the traditional Markov case where there is no duration dependence, and numerical examples are studied.     

陕西省个人结售汇发展趋势及其影响因素分析

当前,在我国居民可支配收入逐年提高背景之下,个人消费性用汇需求不断增长,个人结售汇规模不断扩大.尤其是出国留学、旅游购物用汇增长迅猛,陕西省个人结售汇已连续5年出现逆差,与全国个人结售汇顺差形势相背离.本文通过实证研究分析陕西省个人结售汇影响因素,研判个人结售汇发展趋势,并提出相关建议.